Facts About Global Warming you Should Know

Global warming is not a 20th century phenomenon. It has, in fact, occurred in the past more than once, along with periods of extreme cold known as the ice ages. With so much written and reported about global warming, sometimes it’s difficult to detect which is fact and which is just part of scientific scare tactics. Here are some facts about global warming that might help:

What exactly is global warming?

Global warming is basically the increase in the temperatures of the Earth’s atmosphere, land masses and oceans. The Earth’s surface temperature is at an average of 59F and over the last hundred years, this figure has risen to about 1F. By the year 2100, the average change in the temperature of the Earth could range from 2.5F to about 10F, enough to melt glaciers and polar ice caps.

The cause of global warming

Global warming has and will always occur naturally. Why it has become such a concern in our lifetime is due to the fact that human activities and practices have contributed significantly to its occurrence and severity. With the advent of industrialization and careless environmental practices, we have caused the increase in the average global temperatures by contributing negatively to the greenhouse effect.

This began about 240 years ago, when the Industrial Revolution was born. As more and more fossil fuels in the form of oil were mined and burned, gases as the by-product of that process began to be released in the atmosphere. Currently, it is estimated that 75% of the increase in the carbon dioxide content of the Earth’s atmosphere is caused by the burning of these fossil fuels.

Global warming and the greenhouse effect

Global warming is related to changes in the Earth’s greenhouse effect. Gases naturally occur in the Earth’s atmosphere and act both to protect and retain heat. These gases include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and water vapor. Of these, water vapor is the most dominant and abundant greenhouse gas.

Global warming and the greenhouse effect are not the same thing. The greenhouse effect refers to a natural process that occurs in the Earth’s atmosphere. If this process is disrupted, then it could contribute to global warming.

As the sun’s rays hit the Earth, heat is bounced back to the atmosphere where these gases contain the heat and keep it there to warm the planet. This is an important natural process and allows life forms to flourish and survive. Problems only occur when these gases multiply and build-up, containing heat too efficiently and thus warming the Earth’s atmosphere.

As the Earth’s average temperature rises, effects in its landmasses and sea water level become apparent. Polar ice caps melt along with glaciers, contributing to higher and warmer sea levels. By the end of the century, it is estimated that sea levels can increase from 4 inches to a high of about 40 inches if global warming continues unabated.

Global warming can also affect the behavior of the winds and can also contribute to a harsher and drier climate, with frequent visitings of strong hurricanes. Water from heavier rainfall will not stay long to irrigate the land, however because with a warmer climate, water on the Earth’s surface will evaporate quickly. This has a significant effect on agricultural practices not only in the US but also for the rest of the world.

Another phenomenon that is equated with global warming is the El Nino. The El Nino phenomenon has occurred for possibly thousands of years and is not caused directly by global warming. However, changes in the average temperature of the planet can contribute to its severity and frequency.

Other human practices that contribute to global warming

The agricultural revolution has also contributed to global warming. As more and more communities need lands converted from forests to residential and commercial areas, biomass is reduced, contributing to the increase in the presence of carbon dioxide in those regions. Since carbon dioxide is processed by plants and trees, their absence contributes to its increase.

It is estimated that about 25% of the annual increase in the carbon dioxide found in the Earth’s atmosphere is caused by extreme changes and usage of the Earth’s natural resources. Other practices also include deforestation, salinization, desertification and overgrazing also contribute to global warming. However, many scientists surmise and agree that the contribution is slight and indirect.

Facing the facts of global warming

Countries all over the world have just begun to acknowledge the negative effects of global warming not only to the world’s politics and economy but also to humankind in general. Many of the world’s governments have encouraged implementation of measures to try to counteract the problem of global warming through careful measures and practices designed to protect and respect the environment.

How these measures will fare and contribute to the long-term maintenance of our planet, though, remains to be seen.

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Global Warming Scientists Dispute Man-made Greenhouse Effects

In February 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated in their Fourth Assessment Report that human actions are “very likely” (i.e. with 90% or greater probability) the cause of global warming, indicated by an increase of 0.75 degrees in average global temperatures over the last 100 years. This statement is the result of very tough discussions on a worldwide scale between thousands of climate researchers whether human activity is the main cause of global warming. The results of this discussion were presented to the public in many publications, for instance in Martin Durkin´s documentary “The Great Global Warming Swindle”, presented in March 2007 at UK´s Channel 4. The main message of this production was that man-made global warming is “a lie” and “the biggest scam of modern times.” Martin Durkin and coworkers argue that the scientific consensus on climate change is the product of “a multibillion-dollar worldwide industry, created by fanatically anti-industrial environmentalists, supported by scientists peddling scare stories to chase funding and propped up by complicit politicians and the media”. The documentary showcases scientists, politicians, economists, writers, and others who are sceptical of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic (or man-made) global warming. Some of the scientists, opposing the main stream of greenhouse gas theories, simply argue that it has not yet been ascertained whether humans are the primary cause of global warming or if there are other natural variations responsible for this phenomenon like increased solar activity, cosmic rays or variations in natural climatic cycles. There is also a series of scientists questioning the temperature records used in the databases as temperature differences attributed to the greenhouse effect are reasonable small (fractions of a ºC). The so-called “urban heat island” effect leads to a local warming in more populated areas, showing slightly higher temperatures due to to increased heat generated by cities, rather than a global temperature rise. Anyhow, this argument was confuted by the IPPC, indicating that the effect of the urban heat island on the global temperature trend is no more than 0.05 °C (0.09 °F) degrees through 1990.

Other facts presented by the film were shown to be incorrect or misinterpreted. The film asserts for instance that records of atmospheric CO2 levels since 1940 show a continuing increase, but during this period, global temperature decreased until 1975, and has increased since then. Anyhow, it is well recognized that this cooling was driven mostly by aerosols (i.e. pollution) in the atmosphere. There is nothing contradictory about this cooling when all sources of radiation changes are considered. A second argument that easily can be invalidated is the impact of the so-called “solar variation theory” on global warming. According to the authors, solar activity (and involving cosmic rays as well as heat from the sun aiding cloud formation) is currently at an extremely high level and directly linked to changes in global temperature. The film argues that solar activity is far more influential on global warming than any other anthropogenic or natural activity on Earth. What the film does not mention is that solar activity has declined over the last 30 years – at the same time as the major spike in global temperature.

But there are some statements related to the influence of the oceanic mass and water vapour on climate change which are more difficult to confute. Water vapour makes up about 98% of the greenhouse gases by volume and provides something between 40 to 80 percent of the natural greenhouse effect. It probably has the largest impact on the planet’s temperature and climatic conditions, much larger than CO2. Water particles in the form of clouds act to reflect incoming solar heat, but the film argues that the effects of clouds cannot be accurately simulated by scientists attempting to predict future weather patterns and their effects on global warming. This argument probably is correct and it is well recognized that water vapor is responsible for the natural warming up of the surface temperature to approximately 30-35ºC. Anthropogenic greenhouse effect, according to the film’s argumentation, is only about 2% of the total “natural” greenhouse effect, which corresponds to a 0.6-0.7 ºC increase in temperature. This estimate is somewhat smaller compared to the results of much more sophisticated simulations (0.9 – 2.7ºC), but there is undoubtedly an anthropogenic effect of CO2 increasing the average surface temperature.

One example of the complexity of climatic simulations is the prediction of future storm events considering global warming effects. According to a recently published study, published online by research meteorologist Tom Knutson in the journal Nature Geoscience and resumed in the New York Times (May 18, 2008), global warming isn’t to blame for the recent jump in hurricanes in the Atlantic. The study predicts that by the end of the century the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic will fall by 18 percent. In the past, Knutson has raised concerns about the effects of climate change on storms. His new paper has the potential to heat up a simmering debate among meteorologists about current and future effects of global warming in the Atlantic. And Knutson is not alone with this view. Another group of experts, those who study hurricanes and who are more often skeptical about global warming, also say there is no link between global warming and hurricane frequency. They attribute the recent increase to a natural multi-decade cycle. According to the prediction, the number of hurricanes touching land in the US and its neighbors will drop by about 30 percent because of wind factors. However, the biggest storms, those with winds of more than 110 mph, would only decrease in frequency by 8 percent. The biggest decrease is forecasted for storms with winds between 39 and 73 mph (normal tropical storms), who would decrease by 27 percent.

It’s not all good news from Knutson’s study, however. His computer model also forecasts that “hurricanes and tropical storms will be wetter and fiercer. Rainfall within 30 miles of a hurricane should jump by 37 percent and wind strength should increase by about 2 percent”, Knutson’s study says.

There are already critical reactions on this new publication. MIT hurricane meteorologist Kerry Emanuel claims that the computer model used by Knutson is not adequate enough to look at storms and according to Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist from the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., Knutson’s computer model is poor at assessing tropical weather and ”fail to replicate storms with any kind of fidelity.” It also does not considering well enough the intensity, duration and size of the storm events, as not only the number of hurricanes is important to evaluate.

Positive feedback comes from NOAA hurricane meteorologist Chris Landsea , who wasn’t part of this study, praised Knutson’s work as ”very consistent with what’s being said all along.” ”I think global warming is a big concern, but when it comes to hurricanes the evidence for changes is pretty darn tiny,” Landsea said.

Dr. Oswald J. Eppers is manager of the company E&R InterConsult and owner of the Two-Approach Job Assistant and Career Guide with daily updated job opportunities for renewable energy specialists.
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